What $1 became from January 2015: Reddit's overfit backtest vs Gurgavin's yearly picks vs Mike's YOLO plan

Every line starts at $1 on Jan 2 2015 (Gurgavin: Dec 31 2014, his year-end point). Log scale: each gridline is 10x. YOLO = joining the running plan in 2015, not a fresh start.

source: Reddit line, 1996-2014: r/RobinHood post 84oh86's Finviz chart, digitized from the image (approx.: 1 pixel = $241; before the curve clears ~$2,000 (~2003) it is filled with steady growth; end pinned to the post's 120,825.83). 2015-2026: our rerun on Yahoo daily bars, today's Russell 3000 members (survivors only); Gurgavin: @gurgavin's tweet rule, his own yearly picks 1997-2026 (his Exhibit 6: last year's best S&P 500 stock, held a year). Returns from Yahoo where listed, else his figures; 2026 to Oct 9; year-end points only; before costs. Jun 3 to Dec 31 1996 it holds SPY; Mike's YOLO plan: the 3 S&P 500 stocks with the biggest 6-month gain, 50/25/25; cash (T-bills) whenever the S&P 500 is down over 12 months; re-picked monthly until the first cash spell, then six pots re-picked 6-monthly. Month-end signals, filled at the next trading day's close; 0.1% per trade; Yahoo prices with dead S&P members and takeover outcomes patched in (many pre-2000 members still missing); SPY: Yahoo adjusted close • transform: log scale; $1 start Jan 2 2015 • drawn 2026-10-13 18:46 UTC